Brexit will never happen, as per the analysis of International Innovation

We all know that Britain chose to exit European Union after 52% of the British Citizens voted for leaving the EU while 48% voted to stay with the EU in a referendum held on June 23, 2016. In the wake of those events, the then Prime Minister, David Cameron quit as he was not in favor of Brexit and Theresa May took over as the new Prime Minister of England in 2016.

Despite the decision to exit the EU, Britain did not exit immediately as it was not a simple transition. The date for formal exit was actually designated as March 29, 2019, but the departure did not happen as anticipated. Since the decision was taken, negotiations were on primarily to finalize the separation deal of the UK from the EU. It was termed as the Withdrawal Agreement.

The highlights of the Withdrawal Agreement are as follows:

  • How much money the UK will have to pay the EU in order to break the partnership – that’s about £39bn
  • What will happen to UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU and, equally, what will happen to EU citizens living in the UK
  • How to avoid the return of a physical border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland when it becomes the frontier between the UK and the EU

Apart from these key points a transition period also was agreed upon to allow the UK and EU to strike a trade deal and to give businesses some time to adjust. It means that, if the withdrawal agreement gets a go-ahead, there will be no noteworthy changes between the date of Brexit and December 31, 2020.

This Withdrawal Agreement did not gain any support from the MPs, notwithstanding back-to-back efforts of the Premier, Theresa May on January 15, March 12 and March 29, 2019. As the stalemate continued despite buying some more time from the EU to decide upon the agreement, Mrs. May stepped down as PM and was replaced by Boris Johnson.

What next?

One of the major issues is, many claim the deal fails to give back to the UK control of its own affairs from the EU. The other biggest sticking point has been as to what will happen at the Irish border.

Both the EU and UK want to sidestep the return of guard posts and checks, so something called the backstop – a sort of safety net – was included in the deal. The backstop is meant to be a last resort to keep an open border on the island of Ireland – whatever happens in the Brexit negotiations. This infers that Northern Ireland, without the rest of the UK, will continue to follow some EU rules on things such as food products. Some feel that Northern Ireland should not be treated separately from the rest of the UK.

So, what happens now?

Boris Johnson has said he wants to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement with the EU – to stay clear of the backstop. If he succeeds in doing so, he will still have to get the consent of the MPs before being passed into UK law. However, EU leaders have consistently said they will not renegotiate the withdrawal agreement and that the backstop is an essential part of any deal.

What happens if there is no new deal?

If Boris Johnson does not succeed in convincing the EU to change the withdrawal agreement, he has promised to take the UK out of the EU without a deal on October 31, 2019. This means that the UK must leave the EU without a withdrawal agreement and that is a “no-deal Brexit”.

Though few, there are slim chances of Britain staying in the EU if all discussions and negotiations don’t clear the stalemate.

The research team at International Innovation (the organization that owns this website analyzed various numbers and scenarios.  Pro-Brexit was only 4% more than those against Brexit in 2016.  However, the group against Brexit is a financially strong pro-Globalization group. The issues that could be caused by Brexit are being highlighted by the media in Britain, which have reduced the strength of the pro-Brexit group. As per our analysis, there could be another referendum that would lead to cancellation of Brexit or in other words, Britain would remain within Euro

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